Guideline forecasts UK advertising spend will grow 5.5% in 2026, with retail media networks emerging as a primary driver of that expansion. For brand marketers and media buyers focused on performance and measurement, retail media is moving from niche tactic to core media channel.
UK ad spend outlook: key projections for 2026
Guideline’s forecast points to a stronger ad market driven by macro factors such as a recovering economy and major events that lift demand in the first half of the year. Overall growth is modest but meaningful, and budgets are reallocating toward measurable digital inventory where return on investment is clearer.
Retail media leads digital acceleration
Retail media networks are highlighted by Guideline as a standout growth area, cited at around 17% global growth in 2025. That momentum is expected to translate into the UK market as retailers expand first-party data, onsite advertising formats, and closed-loop attribution. For advertisers, retail media offers tighter measurement of conversions and stronger paths to purchase than many open-web channels.
Channel shifts: digital ascends, linear contracts
Connected TV continues to deliver strong double-digit growth as streaming adoption rises. Social and search remain reliable mid-single-digit drivers of spend thanks to audience reach and direct response capability. By contrast, linear television and free-to-air inventory are set to shrink as advertisers move budgets to channels that offer better measurement and targeting.
The future of ad spend: retail media’s enduring impact
In the UK and globally, retail media is shaping where ad dollars flow. Its combination of purchase intent data, measurable outcomes, and scale positions it as a long-term priority for marketers. Agencies and brands should evaluate retail media networks as core placements within cross-channel strategies, build tighter measurement frameworks, and allocate test budgets now to capture share as the market rebalances.
Source: Guideline.
