The IAB’s 2026 outlook predicts US ad spend will rise by roughly 9.5% next year, calling out commerce media and AI as primary growth drivers. For retail media network operators, brand marketers and agency teams, the study signals a shift toward performance-led budgets, tighter measurement expectations and greater demand for automated decisioning.
Digital Advertising’s Ascent: Commerce Media Takes Center Stage
The IAB positions commerce media as one of the fastest-growing segments inside digital advertising. Retailer-owned ad inventory, product-level signals and purchase-intent data are attracting performance budgets that previously flowed to traditional display and search channels. Commerce media’s appeal rests on clearer attribution paths and direct ties to sales velocity, making it a preferred vehicle for ROI-focused spend.
Performance and AI: Shaping Future Ad Strategies
Agentic AI is cited as a key enabler. Expect AI to automate planning, creative testing, bid strategies and incremental lift models, allowing teams to run larger experiments and shorten optimization cycles. Combined with commerce media’s first-party data, agentic AI helps translate intent into measurable conversions while improving supply-path decisions and budget allocation across platforms.
Implications for Retail Media Networks
Retail media operators should prioritize three capabilities: robust product-level measurement, real-time data activation and interoperable APIs for partner workflows. Networks that can deliver transparent attribution, support automated campaign orchestration and surface incremental ROI will win higher share of brand budgets. Cross-platform measurement and closed-loop attribution continue to be table stakes.
The Road Ahead for Retail Media
- Invest in measurement frameworks that tie ad exposure to purchase outcomes at SKU level.
- Integrate agentic AI into campaign orchestration while maintaining auditability and controls.
- Build productized outcome offerings so brands can buy on ROAS or incremental sales, not just impressions.
- Elevate partnerships with data clean rooms and verification vendors to meet measurement demands.
In short, the IAB forecast confirms a momentum shift toward commerce-first, AI-enabled advertising. Networks that operationalize measurement and automation will be best positioned to capture the incoming flow of performance budgets.
