CTV Advertising’s Surge: A $81 Billion Horizon by 2030
Connected TV advertising is moving from niche to mainstream. Industry forecasts put CTV ad spend at about $44 billion in 2025 and roughly $81 billion by 2030. That rapid expansion is driven by greater viewer time on streaming, broad adoption of ad-supported tiers, and improvements in programmatic targeting that bring TV closer to digital ad performance.
Big Tech’s Grasp: Google, Amazon, and Netflix to Lead the Living Room
Projected Market Dominance
Market research expects Google, Amazon and Netflix to capture roughly half of the CTV ad market by 2030. Each brings unique assets: Google with search and ad tech scale, Amazon with commerce-linked targeting and retail data, and Netflix with subscriber reach and premium content. For retail media teams, that concentration means the primary paths to scale will run through partnerships with these platforms or through deep alliances with their distribution partners.
Driving Forces: From Ad-Supported Streams to Retail Integration
Several trends are accelerating the shift. Ad-supported streaming tiers expand premium inventory without shrinking audiences. Programmatic TV buys and identity solutions deliver audience-level targeting and measurement closer to digital standards. Crucially for retail media, TV is becoming a point of purchase influence: shoppable ads, commerce-enabled streams, and attribution tied to transactions make CTV a direct extension of retail media strategies.
The Strategic Shift: TV Operating Systems as Commerce Hubs
TV operating systems are evolving into commerce gateways. Smart TV OS platforms control app distribution, ad APIs and first-party signals that define ad reach and measurement. For retailers and brands that want to be visible in the living room, integration with TV OS ecosystems matters as much as supply-side relationships. That means negotiating ad placement, measurement access, and data integrations early rather than retrofitting tactics later.
Outlook for retail media
CTV will be a core channel for retail media by 2030. Brands should prioritize CTV inventory, invest in measurement tied to transactions, and build partnerships that link ads to shopper behavior. The winners will be those that blend retail data with streaming reach and programmatic agility to create measurable, shoppable TV experiences.
